During the 2022 African Cup Of Nations, an intriguing comment caught my attention: the African Cup of Nations is arguably more significant to Morocco than the World Cup, since Morocco has the potential to win the African Cup of Nations, whereas winning the World Cup remains a distant aspiration for the time being. This thought led me back to various conversations and debates I have attended over recent years regarding Morocco's strategic orientation towards Africa. 

The prevailing wisdom was that Morocco must establish itself as a leader in its own region before aspiring to be a credible global player. But which region does Morocco fall within? Traditionally seen as an Arab country, many in Morocco now see the country more as an African nation than an Arab state. The Arab region, laden with several powerful and affluent players, poses a challenge to Morocco's ambitions. In contrast, Africa provides a landscape in which Morocco can potentially emerge as a significant leader. This ambition extends beyond the football field, into all aspects of economy and society. 

There are two key concepts to consider in Morocco’s turn towards Africa: “security imaginary” and “power realism.” The former, based on Cornélius Castoriadis' work, encompasses how we perceive ourselves, influenced by both objective and subjective elements of our past and present. “Power realism,” as developed by influential scholars such as Hans J. Morgenthau, prioritizes an objective analysis of facts over sentiments. The marriage of these two concepts symbolizes the union of identity and interests.

In the context of “security imaginary,” Morocco does not perceive itself as a small and marginal state, but rather carries a self-image steeped in centuries of history, prestige, and empire. As the opportunities for expansion towards the East and the North have diminished over the past 400 plus years due to the rise of the Ottoman Empire and Spain, Africa emerged as Morocco's pathway to influence. This lesson from the past very much informs Morocco's presence in Africa in the 21st century.

Modern Moroccan foreign policy adds a few twists to this narrative. The Moroccan government argues the country is a champion of decolonization and an advocate of cooperation among developing countries. The country’s intentions, says Rabat, are not exploitative but collaborative. There are those who point out the shortfalls of this narrative however, notably the controversial handling of African migrants within Morocco’s borders. The perception of Morocco as Europe's “gendarme” or border guard among African migrants undermines the country’s claims about African solidarity. 

The Moroccan government is hoping that the reorientation towards Africa will enable the Kingdom to gradually phase out its reliance on the other Arab states. This shift, while there are many material benefits, is sure to create cultural tension both at home and abroad, with Moroccan public opinion and the nation's self-image being strongly tied to the Arab and Muslim world. 

The pivot towards Africa has implications such as Morocco's diminishing participation in Arab League summits and the country’s plea to become a member of ECOWAS. Consequently, reestablishing diplomatic links with Israel and negotiating a deal towards military cooperation with Tel Aviv are logical outcomes of this evolution in Moroccan standing in the world.

Hans Morgenthau's principles from his influential book "Politics Among Nations," published in 1948, argues that states should define their interests based on the current moment and circumstances. 

In the context of Morocco, this translates into a shift from Arab identity to African identity and a departure from Arab solidarity to an embrace of African partnerships and cooperation. This change puts Morocco in a position to withstand pressure from the West and defend its national interests. Despite recent confrontations with Sweden, the European Union, Germany, Spain, and France, Morocco appears confident in sustaining this policy for a prolonged period. Yet it is too early to evaluate whether this shift in foreign policy will prove a wise move. Time will indeed be the ultimate judge.