With fertility rates in dramatic decline  around the world, almost all the so-called advanced economies are hurtling toward population collapse before the end of this century, while many developing nations will experience the opposite—a demographic surge that could redraw the global balance of power. The implications are nothing short of seismic: without a growing and replenishing population, economic expansion in aging nations will come to a halt, and the very foundations of their socio-economic edifice will begin to crack. What role will these aging nations play in the world of tomorrow and will the emerging economies, propelled by sheer demographic momentum, inherit the mantle of global dominance and consign today’s hegemons to history’s archives?

Today, two-thirds of humanity lives in countries where fertility rates have fallen below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family. UN projections indicate that by 2100, populations in some of the world’s largest economies will shrink by 20 to 50 percent. This dramatic shift will not only reshape societies but will also alter economic structures in irreversible ways.

The age structure of many societies is undergoing a fundamental transformation—from traditional pyramidal distributions, with a broad base of young workers supporting a smaller number of elderly, to obelisk-like structures, where the number of older individuals grows while the working-age population shrinks. In advanced economies and China, for instance, the share of working-age individuals will decline from 67 percent today to just 59 percent by 2050. While sub-Saharan Africa remains an exception with a still-growing young population, other regions will soon face the same challenges within a generation or two.

Economic impact: Consumption, labour, and growth

As societies age, consumers and workers will increasingly be older and concentrated in developing economies. By 2050, seniors will account for one-quarter of global consumption—double their share in 1997. Simultaneously, developing countries will supply a growing share of the global labour force, making their economic stability and productivity essential for sustaining global growth.

However, the current economic structures in aging countries are not designed to support existing income and retirement expectations. The consequences will be stark: in advanced economies and China, GDP per capita growth could slow by an average of 0.4 percent annually between 2023 and 2050, and up to 0.8 percent in some nations. To counteract this decline, either productivity growth must increase or individuals must work longer hours. 

Retirement systems will also come under immense strain. To sustain older populations, as much as 50 percent of labour income may need to be diverted toward supporting retirees. The gap between aggregate consumption and income for seniors is expected to grow by 1.5 times, further pressuring social security systems and economic stability. Countries facing this first wave of demographic decline must act urgently, while others in the later stages must prepare to avoid a similar fate.

Without decisive action, younger generations in aging nations will inherit economies with lower growth potential and an overwhelming financial burden to support retirees. The once-reliable intergenerational transfer of wealth—where the young subsidize the retirement and healthcare of the elderly—is rapidly unravelling. The inevitable result, if left unchecked, could be the slow, agonizing implosion of nations from within.

The Middle East in 2100: Diverging demographic future

The Middle East presents a unique case within the global demographic shift. While some countries, such as Turkey and Iran, are projected to experience population declines by 2100—falling from 85 million to 83 million and 89 million to 80 million, respectively—other nations are poised for explosive growth.

Iraq’s population is expected to surge from 44 million to 112 million, making it 40% larger than either Turkey or Iran. This shift could dramatically alter the balance of power in the region, as the Arab country with the largest Shia Muslim population, becomes a demographic and geopolitical heavyweight. Similarly, Yemen’s population is projected to increase from 34 million to 74 million, surpassing Saudi Arabia’s and positioning it as a key player in the region’s strategic calculus.

Egypt, already the most populous country in the Arab world, will nearly double its population from 111 million to 205 million, far exceeding the combined populations of Iran and Turkey and rivalling that of Russia. Meanwhile, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will experience slower but steady growth, increasing from 59 million to 84 million by 2100.

Israel, Palestine, Syria, and Jordan will also see significant population increases. Israel’s population will double to 18.4 million, while Palestine (Gaza and the West Bank) will grow from 5.2 million to 12.8 million according to UN projections. Syria will nearly double from 22 million to 43 million, and Jordan will rise from 11 million to 18 million. Conversely, Lebanon is projected to shrink slightly, from 5.5 million to 4.7 million. In total, these five populations will reach a combined 95 million, making them collectively larger than Turkey or Iran.

Great power forecasts and global implications

The demographic shifts in the Middle East must also be viewed in the broader context of global power dynamics. While the United States will see modest population growth from 338 million to 394 million by 2100, China’s population is expected to decline dramatically from 1.425 billion to 767 million. Russia is projected to shrink from 43% of the U.S. population to just 28%, further weakening its global position. In contrast, India’s population will grow from 1.417 billion to 1.530 billion, solidifying its position as a dominant global force.

Perhaps the most striking demographic transformation will be the rise of sub-Saharan Africa. With a projected increase from 1.166 billion to 3.442 billion people by 2100, Africa will become the primary driver of global population growth. Its population will be 450% that of China and more than eight times that of the United States, making its economic development crucial for global stability.

Uncharted waters of demographic change

This demographic shift necessitates deep societal transformations. Long-established work practices must be redefined, retirement ages reconsidered, and social contracts rewritten. More fundamentally, the declining fertility rates must be reversed to prevent depopulation—an unprecedented challenge in modern history.

While immigration policies may offer a temporary fix for labour shortages, they are hardly a sustainable answer in the long run. But what about AI and technology? Could the rise of artificial general intelligence (AGI) render the population equation irrelevant? If machines take over wealth creation entirely, severing the link between labour and economic productivity, we may find ourselves in a world where the existing social contract collapses altogether.

In this reality, demographics would no longer dictate economic productivity, and the challenges societies face would take an entirely different shape. The question would no longer be how the working population sustains the retired, but rather how wealth is to be distributed when human labour is no longer part of the equation at all. Solutions like universal basic income may not just be desirable but inevitable. And yet, such speculation remains just that. AGI, as of now, does not exist, and its impact on societies and the global order is unknowable. This is precisely why it is called the singularity—beyond that threshold, predictions become futile.

The demographic challenge is not some distant dilemma—it is already unfolding before our eyes. The shift in the geopolitical balance of power will be an uncomfortable pill to swallow for the nations that currently sit at the top. We are on the brink of an era where conflict could become inevitable, as nations come to terms with their diminishing influence while others surge forward with remarkable momentum. As for AI, it could very well be the black swan that surprises us all, but, as it stands today, it remains uncertain whether it can truly offset the demographic upheaval bearing down on us.

This, perhaps, is the instrument poised to alter the global balance of power, one that could see the ascendancy of emerging nations, propelling them to the forefront of the geopolitical stage. Take Sub-Saharan Africa, for example: if its growth is nurtured with equity, it could rise not merely as a regional force but as a genuine superpower, with economies expanding at a rate so formidable that the current hegemonic powers would be left scrambling to keep pace.