Much of the world’s mind space has been taken up with Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war but it’s worth thinking about his scattershot attempts at peace as well. Every city picked by the Trump administration to host international negotiations is in the Middle East. Does this indicate an emerging new hierarchy of places that “do” peace?
At the weekend, Oman’s foreign minister Badr Albusaidi hosted nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, reprising the back-channel facilitation attempts that successfully ended in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. In 2025, of course, Oman’s dispute resolution skills may be challenged by the reality that Trump peremptorily abandoned the agreement and is now heading back to the same negotiating venue for a do-over. Muscat must wonder what confidence-building measures could possibly work in such a scenario.
Saudi Arabia played host to the February 18 US–Russian talks, the first in three years. It served as the venue for the March 11 US-Ukraine meeting on ending the conflict triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour. On March 23, the follow-up US negotiation with Ukraine and Russia was held in Riyadh.
Meanwhile, separate from anything initiated by the Trump administration, Qatar continues to play a key role in discussions between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in a bid to halt the fighting in the east of the DRC.
It’s noteworthy there is a new trinity of Middle Eastern “peace capitals”, i.e. cities that advertise previous or ongoing mediation roles and seek recognition as natural sites for major global negotiations.
Once upon a time, it was almost a given that international negotiations would occur in places like Switzerland. These met colonial and post-colonial requirements because they included neutrality despite most analysts’ view that a successful mediator need not necessarily be impartial so much as able to influence, protect, or extend the interests of each party in conflict. There was also the perception that western locations were better suited to be peace cities because they were more “developed”.
According to an academic study of 39 treaties, agreements and protocols signed from 1919 to 1981, Geneva had the highest tally with eight, Washington, DC and Moscow six each, Paris got three and London bagged two. After the successful 1975 Helsinki meeting of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Finnish capital also developed an international image akin to Geneva. And Norway, with its active 1990s promotion of Israeli-Palestinian dialogue, its NGOs, humanitarian relief workers and human rights observers, has long had a respectable profile as an international negotiator.
What to make of the fact that now, an Arab country is hosting the diplomatic efforts of American mediators over a European war? How to read the reality that a Gulf state is getting involved in a faraway central African conflict?
Qatar has some skin in that particular game. It has substantial investments in Rwanda and is mulling a growth strategy in the DRC and Africa’s Great Lakes region as a whole. But equally, Qatar already has a presence in what might be called the “peace business”, including in Africa. Three years ago, it brokered a deal between rebels in Chad and the country’s transitional government. In its own region, Qatar has long served as a mediator between Hamas and Israel. Qatar also hosted the talks with the Taliban that resulted in the 2020 Doha Agreement for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.
As for Saudi Arabia, Trump’s personal preference for the kingdom and its royals is well documented. In his second term too, Trump intends to distinguish Riyadh as the first foreign destination of his presidency. Presidential approval or not, it is true Saudi Arabia has done a fair bit in the past three years to establish its even-handedness in relation to Russia and Ukraine. The kingdom has pursued a policy of “positive neutrality”. This enabled it to publicly condemn Russia's military aggression as a contravention of international law, while also refusing to join western attempts to prevent Russia selling its oil internationally. Riyadh cooperates with Russia in OPEC+ but has also hosted Ukraine’s president at the 2023 Arab League Summit.
Within six months of Russia’s February 2022 invasion, Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman had involved himself in the successful release of 10 international prisoners of war held by Russian proxies in Ukraine. And he has repeatedly offered to mediate between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.
Somewhat like Qatar, Saudi Arabia has also been trying to build its mediation muscle in other theatres. It worked with the UAE to get Eritrea and Ethiopia to sign a peace deal in 2018 and end more than 20 years of war. During the Biden presidency, Saudi Arabia and the US mediated the first formal, if short-lived, truce between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
So, are the new peacemakers to be found in the Middle East? It is a grandiose claim and controversial for all sorts of reasons, not least the lack of evidence these new regional peace negotiators are passionately engaged, willing or even able to settle conflicts nearer home.
But consider the words of the late Harold H Saunders, an American diplomat who some credit with coining the very term "peace process" in connection with Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Back in 1991, Saunders said that “when old lenses no longer bring the world into focus and a traditional vocabulary does not accurately describe it, it is both realistic and prudent to grind new lenses and introduce fresh language”. Might the Middle East’s new peace brokers be preparing us to see and speak in new ways?
All three have very different perspectives from their predecessor peace sites. They are not democracies. They see the world through a distinct cultural prism informed by the Islamic faith. And their modernisation is largely post-industrial.
It sure makes for new lenses and language in diplomacy.
Rashmee Roshan Lall, PhD, writes on international affairs and is a lecturer at Goldsmiths, University of London. Her Substack This Week, Those Books links the week’s big news story to the world of books. She blogs at www.rashmee.com
